Caucus Fever! The Aftermath

Huckabee and Obama–just as I would have predicted at, um, 4:30 or so yesterday afternoon. My thoughts and predictions:

  • Huckabee won’t get the nomination. The caucus results overstate his support and appeal–he’s got a strong base of fervent supporters, drawn from conservative evangelicals, who once fired up are more likely than just plain unexcited folks to turn up for a caucus. In a real election the evangelicals won’t be that overrepresented. Also, as I said, the shadowy cabal that runs the Republican party can’t abide Huckabee.
  • Not that I have much of a clue who will get it, though. I’d bet on Romney, mostly because as far as I can tell the Republican bosses hate McCain too. I’m still desperately trying to assume Giuliani doesn’t have a chance.
  • Also, Romney is still all chiseled and handsome, and that counts for a lot. Paula Poundstone, whom we saw a year and a bit ago, kinda nailed it:

    Paula: “How about Mitt Romney? Is he going to be President, or what? He’s so handsome and Presidential I think he’s going to make it.”

    Audience [a Paula Poundstone audience in Cambridge, MA, will contain very few Republicans. Lots of lesbians, though] : ” Noooo!”

    Paula: “No, no, really! We’re just not that smart! So you’re fucked.”

  • For the Democrats, geez, I don’t know. My money’s still on Hillary, with her steely nerve and political machine. Heck, this could help her, if she can exploit the “now I’m the plucky underdog” storyline (OK, a bit of a stretch for Hillary). It sorta depends on whether The Media decide to go a little easy now that she’s not invulnerable, or to kick her while she’s down.

Gosh, but The Onion has the most intelligent political commentary of any major media outlet (yes, those are all old, but still).

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