Huckabee and Obama–just as I would have predicted at, um, 4:30 or so yesterday afternoon. My thoughts and predictions:
- Huckabee won’t get the nomination. The caucus results overstate his support and appeal–he’s got a strong base of fervent supporters, drawn from conservative evangelicals, who once fired up are more likely than just plain unexcited folks to turn up for a caucus. In a real election the evangelicals won’t be that overrepresented. Also, as I said, the shadowy cabal that runs the Republican party can’t abide Huckabee.
- Not that I have much of a clue who will get it, though. I’d bet on Romney, mostly because as far as I can tell the Republican bosses hate McCain too. I’m still desperately trying to assume Giuliani doesn’t have a chance.
- Also, Romney is still all chiseled and handsome, and that counts for a lot. Paula Poundstone, whom we saw a year and a bit ago, kinda nailed it:
Paula: “How about Mitt Romney? Is he going to be President, or what? He’s so handsome and Presidential I think he’s going to make it.”
Audience [a Paula Poundstone audience in Cambridge, MA, will contain very few Republicans. Lots of lesbians, though] : ” Noooo!”
Paula: “No, no, really! We’re just not that smart! So you’re fucked.”
- For the Democrats, geez, I don’t know. My money’s still on Hillary, with her steely nerve and political machine. Heck, this could help her, if she can exploit the “now I’m the plucky underdog” storyline (OK, a bit of a stretch for Hillary). It sorta depends on whether The Media decide to go a little easy now that she’s not invulnerable, or to kick her while she’s down.